Most Cannabis Consumers Doubt Rescheduling Will Finish This Year, Poll Shows

Consumer Sentiment Reflects Procedural Skepticism

The poll found that 62% of cannabis consumers expect the DEA rescheduling process to extend beyond 2026, with only 23% predicting completion this year. Conducted between June 25 and July 5, 2026, the survey sampled 1,200 adults who reported using cannabis at least once per month. Respondents were asked when they believed the DEA would issue a final rule moving marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act.

The breakdown of responses:

• 23% expect completion in 2026
• 41% expect completion in 2027
• 21% expect completion in 2028 or later
• 15% said they don't believe rescheduling will happen at all

Researchers didn't ask respondents to explain their reasoning, but the results align with public comments submitted during the DEA's notice-and-comment period, which closed in July 2024 and drew more than 43,000 submissions.

DEA Administrative Review Continues Without Public Timeline

The Drug Enforcement Administration hasn't announced a target date for completing its review of the Health and Human Services recommendation to reschedule cannabis to Schedule III. DEA Administrator Anne Milgram testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee in May 2026 that the agency was conducting a thorough review of the HHS August 2023 recommendation. She declined to commit to a completion timeline.

The rescheduling process began in October 2022 when President Joe Biden directed HHS to review marijuana's scheduling. HHS completed its review in August 2023 and recommended Schedule III placement. DEA published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking in May 2024, opening a 60-day comment period that was later extended to 90 days.

In December 2024, DEA held a two-day public hearing, hearing testimony from 58 witnesses including state regulators, medical researchers, and industry representatives. Since the hearing concluded, the agency hasn't released a timeline for issuing a final rule.

Industry Operators Share Consumer Pessimism on Timeline

The consumer poll results mirror private sentiment among multi-state operators and investors, many of whom have stopped modeling 2026 rescheduling into financial projections. Executives at three publicly traded MSOs told investors during second-quarter 2026 earnings calls that they were planning for a 2027 or later effective date for any Schedule III rule.

The delay matters financially. Rescheduling would eliminate Internal Revenue Code Section 280E, which prohibits cannabis businesses from deducting ordinary business expenses on federal tax returns. Industry analysts estimate that 280E costs the sector $1.5 billion to $2 billion annually in excess federal tax liability.

For background on the rescheduling process and its implications for operators, see the CannIntel topic hub on DEA rescheduling.

What Happens Next in the Administrative Process

DEA must complete several procedural steps before issuing a final rule, including review of public comments, internal agency deliberation, and clearance from the Office of Management and Budget. The Administrative Procedure Act doesn't impose a deadline for final rulemaking, and agencies frequently take 12 to 24 months or longer to move from proposed rule to final rule in complex matters.

A DEA submission of a final rule to OMB for regulatory review under Executive Order 12866 would be the next visible milestone. That submission triggers a public docket entry and typically precedes publication in the Federal Register by 60 to 90 days. No such submission has been logged as of July 9, 2026.

If DEA does finalize Schedule III placement, the rule would take effect 30 days after Federal Register publication unless the agency specifies a delayed effective date. The earliest mathematically possible effective date, assuming immediate OMB clearance today, would be late September 2026—a timeline few industry watchers consider realistic.