Cannabis Consumers Drop Trump Support as Most Doubt 2026 Rescheduling

Consumer Confidence in Rescheduling Timeline Collapses

Most marijuana consumers no longer believe the DEA will finalize Schedule III rescheduling in 2026. The survey found 63% of regular cannabis users expect the rescheduling process to extend into 2027 or beyond, up from 41% who expressed similar skepticism in January. Only 22% said they believe the DEA will complete the administrative review and final rule publication before December 31, 2026.

The shift reflects growing awareness of procedural complexity. The DEA's notice of proposed rulemaking triggered a 60-day public comment period that closed in May, but the agency hasn't scheduled administrative law judge hearings or published a timeline for the final rule. Even optimistic projections now place final rescheduling in Q2 2027 at the earliest.

For context on the full procedural timeline and stakeholder positions, see the CannIntel topic hub on DEA rescheduling.

Trump Administration Approval Drops Among Cannabis Voters

Approval of Trump's handling of cannabis policy fell 14 percentage points among marijuana consumers since March. Just 38% of respondents who reported using cannabis in the past 30 days said they approve of the administration's approach to federal reform, down from 52% in a March survey by the same polling firm. The decline was sharpest among younger consumers aged 21-34, where approval dropped to 31%.

The poll didn't specify which Trump actions drove the sentiment shift, but the timing coincides with the administration's public silence on rescheduling progress and Attorney General statements emphasizing continued enforcement discretion under the Controlled Substances Act. Trump hasn't issued a public statement on cannabis policy since a brief April remark calling rescheduling "under review."

Partisan Divide on Rescheduling Expectations Widens

Republican cannabis consumers remain far more optimistic about rescheduling timelines than Democrats or independents. Among self-identified Republican respondents who use marijuana, 41% still expect 2026 completion, compared to 18% of Democrats and 20% of independents. The gap suggests partisan identity may be influencing expectations around administrative process speed, even as procedural realities remain unchanged.

The partisan split on rescheduling expectations reflects broader political polarization, not differences in how the Administrative Procedure Act works—but it may shape how different voter blocs evaluate Trump's cannabis record heading into 2028.

Across all respondents, regardless of personal cannabis use, 57% support moving marijuana to Schedule III. Another 29% favor full descheduling, while 11% oppose any change. Support for Schedule III rescheduling was highest among voters over 50 (64%) and lowest among voters under 30 (48%), a pattern that mirrors generational attitudes on incremental versus comprehensive reform.

Implications for State Markets and Operator Strategy

Skepticism around federal timelines is already reshaping state-level operator planning and capital allocation. Several multi-state operators have told investors in recent earnings calls that they're no longer modeling 280E tax relief in 2026 financial projections, citing uncertainty around the DEA's final-rule publication date. One CFO described the rescheduling timeline as "too fluid to underwrite" in current-year budgets.

The poll results may accelerate that conservative posture. If consumer sentiment reflects broader market expectations, operators face a longer window of Schedule I tax treatment and continued federal-state legal tension. That extends the capital disadvantage for U.S. cannabis companies relative to international peers. It also delays any rescheduling-driven M&A activity that investors have priced into some equity valuations.

State regulators are also recalibrating. California and New York have both signaled that they won't wait for federal rescheduling to move forward with intrastate reforms, including social-equity licensing expansions and revised testing standards for THCA and delta-9 THC content.

We'll be watching whether the DEA publishes an ALJ hearing schedule before the August congressional recess—the next signal that 2026 completion remains procedurally possible.